POLL: majority of americans oppose tariffs citing inflation concerns, supply chain disruptions
Quinnipiac University National Poll
Survey Dates: December 12 – 16, 2024
Sample Size: 924 registered voters nationwide
Margin of Error: ±3.2 percentage points
Sampling Method:
Probability-based sampling
Random digit dialing (RDD)
Live interviewers calling both landlines and cell phones
Results and crosstabs available here.
A new Quinnipiac University National Poll reiterates what Center Aisle Coalition’s own research has consistently found: tariffs are an unpopular policy and viewed by many Americans as inflationary. As President-Elect Trump intends to move forward with his plan to impose tariffs on Mexico, Canada, and other nations once he is in office, voter sentiment is largely negative on the approach, with a majority opposing tariffs due to concerns over inflation, economic stability, and supply chain disruption.
THE POLL: Quinnipiac University National Poll (December 2024)
Quinnipiac Poll Findings on Tariffs
Key Poll Results (December 2024 Poll)
TOPLINE: 51% of voters oppose Trump’s plan to impose tariffs on Mexico, Canada, and China, compared to 38% who support it.
Partisan Breakdown:
76% of Republicans support tariffs, while only 12% oppose them.
89% of Democrats oppose tariffs, with just 7% in favor.
Independents oppose tariffs by a 53-34% margin.
Age Breakdown:
Younger voters (18-34) are the most opposed (54% against, 35% in favor).
Support peaks among 50-64-year-olds, but even here, it's divided (46% support, 46% oppose).
Gender Breakdown:
47% of men support tariffs, while 41% oppose them.
60% of women oppose tariffs, 30% support.
Key Findings from Center Aisle Coalition Research
CAC research has consistently shown that tariffs are unpopular among persuadable voters, particularly those most concerned with inflation and cost-of-living issues. Our August 2024 survey found:
69% of independent voters believe tariffs increase consumer prices.
63% of voters in swing states said they would be less likely to support a candidate advocating for higher tariffs.
78% of small business owners reported that tariffs raised their costs, leading to price increases for customers.
80% of voters under 40 oppose tariffs, believing they hurt innovation and economic growth.
These findings align with Quinnipiac’s data and reinforce the case that tariffs are a political liability for those who support them.
Why Tariffs Are Bad Economics
1. Tariffs Raise Consumer Prices
Tariffs act as a tax on imports, and businesses pass these costs on to consumers.
The 2018 Trump tariffs added an estimated $57 billion to consumer costs annually.
CAC polling has repeatedly found that cost of living is the top economic concern for voters, and tariffs directly exacerbate price increases.
2. Tariffs Fuel Inflation
With 64% of voters saying inflation is a “very serious” problem, tariffs worsen inflation by increasing production costs and consumer prices.
Economists estimate tariffs could add 0.5 to 2.2 percentage points to core inflation, further complicating efforts to bring prices down.
A recent Federal Reserve study found that tariffs accounted for nearly 20% of the inflationary surge in 2022, showing their direct impact on rising costs.
3. Tariffs Hurt American Businesses
Companies that rely on imported materials face higher costs, making them less competitive.
The 2018 steel and aluminum tariffs added $5 billion in costs for U.S. manufacturers, forcing layoffs and plant closures.
China’s retaliatory tariffs reduced U.S. soybean exports by 75%, leading to massive taxpayer-funded subsidies to offset farmer losses.
Why Tariffs Are Bad Policy
1. Tariffs Trigger Trade Wars
Other countries retaliate against U.S. tariffs, leading to higher costs for American exporters.
In response to Trump’s 2018 tariffs on Chinese imports, China imposed tariffs on $110 billion in U.S. goods, devastating U.S. agriculture.
2. Tariffs Slow Economic Growth
The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimated that the 2018-2019 tariffs slowed U.S. GDP growth by 0.3% per year.
Tariffs reduce business investment due to uncertainty and higher costs, making U.S. industries less competitive globally.
3. Tariffs Fail to Achieve Their Goals when MISUSED
Trump’s first-term tariffs did not bring back American jobs.
U.S. Steel still laid off hundreds of workers due to cost increases.
The U.S. trade deficit actually increased under Trump despite aggressive tariffs.
The 2020 trade deficit was higher than before Trump took office proving tariffs failed to reduce dependency on foreign goods.
Why Tariffs Are Bad Politics
For Republicans:
Tariffs are unpopular with swing voters.
Independents oppose tariffs by 53-34%, meaning a pro-tariff stance could hurt the GOP in 2026.
Tariffs undermine the GOP’s economic credibility.
Inflation remains the #1 voter concern, and supporting tariffs ties Republicans to policies that directly worsen it.
Midterm Turnout Concerns:
GOP turnout dropped in 2018 when Trump wasn’t on the ballot. If tariffs fuel economic anxiety, persuadable voters may lean away from Republicans in 2026.
For Democrats:
Strong opposition to tariffs can be an electoral advantage.
89% of Democrats oppose tariffs, so taking a strong stance could energize the base while also winning over independents.
Opportunity to frame the economic argument.
By emphasizing how tariffs hurt consumers and small businesses, Democrats can present a clear economic alternative to Trump’s policies.
Focusing on inflation is a winning strategy.
Since inflation is a top concern for voters, Democrats can position themselves as the party fighting to lower the costs of goods.
Conclusion: Tariffs Are a Losing Strategy
Tariffs drive up consumer prices, fuel inflation, and hurt American businesses.
They fail to bring back jobs or reduce the trade deficit.
Polling shows that a majority of Americans—and especially independents—oppose tariffs.
Strategic Takeaways for 2026:
Republicans must reconsider their pro-tariff stance or risk losing economic credibility with independents.
Democrats should lean into an anti-tariff message to win over swing voters while energizing their base.
Ultimately, tariffs are a self-inflicted wound on the economy, public policy, and electoral strategy. Both parties should take note.
