gop analysis: Republicans Are Gaining—But Can They Close the Deal with Swing Voters?
Quinnipiac University National Poll
Survey Dates: February 13 – 17, 2025
Sample Size: 1,039 registered voters nationwide
Margin of Error: ±3.0 percentage points
Sampling Method:
Probability-based sampling
Random digit dialing (RDD)
Live interviewers calling both landlines and cell phones
Results and crosstabs available here.
Key Takeaways for Republicans from the Quinnipiac Poll
New Quinnipiac polling shows Republicans in Congress have hit a record-high approval rating of 40%, while Democrats have sunk to an all-time low of 21%. This presents a major opportunity for the GOP, but the numbers also reveal key challenges.
While Republicans are gaining from Democratic missteps, 52% of voters still disapprove of GOP leadership in Congress.
Independent voters remain skeptical, with 40% approving of Republicans in Congress but 53% disapproving.
The GOP historically struggles with turnout when Trump is not on the ballot (as seen in 2018), making it even more critical that Republicans expand their appeal to persuadable voters.
1. Republicans Are Benefiting from Democratic Failures, Not Enthusiasm for Their Own Agenda
GOP congressional approval is at an all-time high, but more voters still disapprove than approve.
Independents are rejecting Democrats, but they are not fully embracing Republicans yet.
What Republicans Should Do:
Expand beyond partisan fights and focus on delivering tangible results.
Appeal to independent voters directly, not just through contrast with Democrats.
Provide clear, policy-driven leadership rather than relying on opposition rhetoric alone.
2. The Economy Is the Best Opportunity—But Republicans Must Handle It Carefully
64% of voters say inflation is a “very serious” problem, including 74% of Republicans and 64% of independents.
Voters are evenly split on whether Trump’s policies will help or hurt the economy (44% say help, 44% say hurt).
51% of voters believe Trump’s tariffs will hurt the economy, compared to 40% who believe they will help.
What Republicans Should Do:
Make the cost of living and economic security a top priority.
Avoid economic overreach that could alienate moderates, such as aggressive tariff policies and increasing the budget deficit.
Provide a clear economic vision that persuadable voters can buy into, rather than just attacking Democratic policies.
3. Trump Motivates the Base, But CONCERNS SWING VOTERS
Trump’s approval rating sits at 45%, with 49% disapproving.
Independents are split on Trump (43% approve, 50% disapprove), showing he is not an automatic draw for swing voters.
The GOP’s midterm performance in 2018 showed that turnout drops when Trump is not on the ballot.
What Republicans Should Do:
Use Trump strategically to energize the base, but distance themselves from him as much as possible, such as voting against your own party on occassion.
Shape a broader Republican message that appeals to independents and moderate conservatives.
Focus on policy wins and economic competence rather than making 2026 a referendum on the Trump Administration.
4. Independents Want Stability and Competence, Not Just Partisan Warfare
52% of independents believe the system of checks and balances is failing.
53% of independents disapprove of Republicans in Congress, while only 40% approve.
Independents overwhelmingly oppose Trump’s proposal for the U.S. to take control of Gaza (66% oppose, 17% support).
What Republicans Should Do:
Prove they can govern effectively, rather than just being the opposition party.
Avoid extreme positions that turn off moderates and independents and call out President Trump when he takes those positions.
Focus on pragmatic, results-oriented leadership rather than social and culture war battles that don’t resonate with the middle.
The Path Forward: How Republicans Can connect with Persuadable Voters
Make economic stability and affordability the top priority. Inflation remains the #1 concern for persuadable voters.
Turn policy into persuasion. Republican messaging should focus on solutions, not on loyalty to Trump.
Recognize Trump’s limits. He drives GOP enthusiasm, but he also drives Democratic enthusiasm as we saw in 2018 and 2020.
Outreach to swing voters is critical. 2018 showed that when Trump isn’t on the ballot, Republicans struggle with turnout. Expanding appeal to moderates is key.
Prove Republicans can govern. Independents are looking for competence, not just a party shift.
Center Aisle Coalition will continue tracking these trends and working to ensure that both major parties understand and engage with the commonsense center. Check our our Democratic analysis over this same poll.
