Data Decode: Democrats Are Losing the Middle—Here’s How They Can Win It Back
Quinnipiac University National Poll
Survey Dates: February 13 – 17, 2025
Sample Size: 1,039 registered voters nationwide
Margin of Error: ±3.0 percentage points
Sampling Method:
Probability-based sampling
Random digit dialing (RDD)
Live interviewers calling both landlines and cell phones
Results and crosstabs available here.
Key Takeaways for Democrats
New Quinnipiac polling shows that Democrats in Congress have hit an all-time low approval rating of just 21%, with nearly half of their own voters disapproving of their performance. At the same time, Republicans in Congress have reached a record-high approval of 40%, suggesting that dissatisfaction with Democrats is translating into GOP gains rather than enthusiasm for the Republican agenda.
The numbers paint a clear picture: Democrats are losing ground with persuadable voters, and their current strategy is failing to inspire confidence. As an organization committed to ensuring both major parties engage with the commonsense center, Center Aisle Coalition breaks down what this means for Democrats—and how they can rebuild trust with the voters they need to win in 2026.
1. Congressional Democrats Have a Credibility Problem
Only 21% of voters approve of the job Democrats in Congress are doing—the lowest rating since Quinnipiac began polling in 2009.
Even among Democratic voters, only 40% approve, while 49% disapprove.
Among independents, just 19% approve, compared to 70% who disapprove.
What This Means: Voters see congressional Democrats as ineffective, out of touch, or unable to counter Trump and the GOP. The perception that checks and balances aren’t working (a view held by 80% of Democrats) only amplifies this problem.
What Democrats Should Do: Show leadership, not just opposition. Persuadable voters need to see tangible wins, a proactive vision, and a clear governing strategy—not just reactive resistance to Trump.
2. The Economy Remains the Central Issue—And Democrats Are Losing on It
64% of voters say inflation is a “very serious” problem, including 53% of Democrats.
Voters are split on whether Trump’s policies will help (44%) or hurt (44%) the economy, suggesting an opening for Democrats—but also a vulnerability if they don’t define their own vision.
What This Means: Democrats aren’t winning the economic argument, and generic messaging about “corporate greed” isn’t persuading the middle. Swing voters want practical, results-driven solutions on affordability, wages, and economic security.
What Democrats Should Do:
Focus on cost-of-living solutions (housing, energy, groceries, wages) rather than broad economic narratives.
Make a direct case against Trump’s economic policies, but only if paired with a clear alternative.
Stop assuming voters see Democrats as the party of economic competence—these numbers show that assumption is failing.
3. Trump Is Still Polarizing, But Democrats Aren’t Capitalizing on It
Trump’s approval rating stands at 45%, with 49% disapproving.
However, Republicans in Congress are seeing gains despite Trump remaining unpopular, meaning voters aren’t punishing the GOP for his leadership as much as Democrats may hope.
What This Means: Democrats cannot assume that opposing Trump is enough to win elections. The GOP is gaining ground, even as Trump remains divisive, because they are offering voters a sense of action—whereas Democrats appear stagnant.
What Democrats Should Do:
Highlight Trump’s vulnerabilities, but don’t make 2026 a referendum on him alone.
Engage swing voters on issues they care about (economy, stability, governance) rather than just anti-Trump messaging.
Address the “fight harder” sentiment among Democratic voters—but channel that energy into effective governing, not just resistance.
4. Independents Are Abandoning Democrats—And That’s a 2026 Disaster Waiting to Happen
Only 19% of independents approve of Democrats in Congress, while 70% disapprove.
Meanwhile, 40% of independents approve of Republicans in Congress, suggesting they are at least open to giving the GOP a chance.
What This Means: Independents—who often decide midterm elections—are turning away from Democrats because they don’t see leadership, solutions, or a compelling alternative to the GOP.
What Democrats Should Do:
Speak directly to independent voters in messaging, policy, and outreach.
Offer a message of stability, competence, and results—not just partisanship.
Rebuild trust in government and institutions by demonstrating that Democrats can lead effectively, not just criticize.
The Path Forward: How Democrats Can Reconnect with Persuadable Voters
Stop assuming anti-Trump sentiment will carry them to victory—these numbers show that voters are disillusioned with both sides, but only Republicans are gaining ground.
Win the economic argument by making affordability a top priority and offering clear, practical solutions.
Rebuild credibility with independents and moderate voters by focusing on competence, governance, and real policy outcomes.
Don’t just “fight harder”—fight smarter. Channel Democratic voters’ frustration into a strategy that wins elections, not just headlines.
The Bottom Line: Democrats still have time to reverse these trends before 2026—but they must rethink their messaging, refocus their policy priorities, and rebuild trust with persuadable voters. If they fail to do so, they risk losing even more ground in the next election.
Center Aisle Coalition will continue tracking these trends and working to ensure that both major parties understand and engage with the commonsense center. Check our our Republican analysis over this same poll.
